Job Description:

The Credit Forecasting team is part of the broader Consumer Credit Risk Management division. Our team provides reasonable forecasts of delinquencies, charge off and recovery of charged off assets throughout the year for Regulatory (CCAR and Risk Appetite), capacity planning and year-end budget in partnership with P&A, collections, recovery teams by means of various macro-economic scenarios. The team is also responsible for monitoring the health of the portfolio and updating stakeholders and senior management on emerging trends.

As a professional within the Consumer Credit Forecasting team, you will manage production analytics for the HL Credit Forecasting team. Responsibilities include analyzing model-ready data, understanding the MEV trends and Loss forecasting models, executing models, summarizing results, and explaining quantitative model results. You will also participate in business testing of model upgrades and contribute to critical projects aimed at achieving the future-state 1-click solution. Additionally, you are expected to support the automation of various processes related to HL model runs.

Job responsibilities

• Execute credit loss forecasting models to forecast credit losses and allowance for our product portfolio supporting regulatory exercises like CCAR, CECL, firmwide Risk Appetite and Budget
• Determine the loss forecasting results and levers. You will be required to present to senior management and other internal stakeholders.
• Diagnose the Model parameters and liaison with modelling team to propose changes to model for accuracy at granular segments.
• Participate in cross-functional communications with Risk Management, Finance, Marketing and Collections to inform the forecast on current learnings and incorporate strategic initiatives.
• Conduct macro sensitivity analytics, loss and allowance attribution, deep dives and storyboarding.
• Lead advanced analyses to assess relationships and patterns driving loss performance.
• Drive process enhancements by identifying opportunities for efficiency improvements and implementing automation solutions to streamline forecasting activities.
• Collaborate with technology teams to integrate innovative tools and methodologies that enhance forecasting accuracy and operational effectiveness.
• Monitor and interpret key MEV trends (levels, seasonality, structural breaks, and data drift), perform segment/vintage drilldowns, and clearly articulate MEV-driven impacts on loss forecasts to stakeholders.

Required qualifications, capabilities, and skills.

• A bachelor’s or master’s Degree in a quantitative discipline (Finance/Stats/Econ/Math/Engineering) or equivalent work/training
• Minimum 3 yrs. of Credit Risk Management, product / revenue analytics, and/or consulting experience
• Strong knowledge of Python/SQL/SAS/Tableau/Alteryx/ Cloud application architecture
• Proficiency in Microsoft Office suite of products (Advanced Excel, VBA and PowerPoint)
• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills with the ability to interpret large amounts of data and its impact in either operational or financial areas.
• Well-organized and structured with strong communication and presentation skills.
• Knowledge of regulatory modeling (IFRS9 /CECL /CCAR)
• Credit risk experience in one or more US consumer credit portfolios (i.e. U.S. Mortgage, Credit Card, Automotive, Business Banking, Wealth Management, Private Banking)